How Arkansas Beats LSU
I know a lot of us are down on the Hogs right now... but what if we win?
Good morning.
It’s been a while, and it’s good to see you again.
I’ve been itching to get back to Pig Tales since I stopped doing it, and I’m excited to finally have the time and energy that I want to dedicate to this “publication.”
I got into a writing mood when I joined SB Nation’s site, And The Valley Shook, earlier this week to play nice and play dirty. I was more down on the Hogs than I usually am, predicting a loss after blowing the BYU game last week.
Dear reader, I have awoken this morning with renewed optimism (denial is the first stage of grief).
I read a great BYU postgame review by my former Arkansas Fight colleague, Adam Ford, in his excellent newsletter Fayette Villains. In it, Adam reminds us of the 2015 football game against Toledo.
In the second game of the 2015 season, Arkansas football was undergoing an evolution, breaking in the scheme of new offensive coordinator Dan Enos. Enos had joined Bielema’s staff in the offseason after the departure of Jim Chaney, and with a 5th year senior quarterback in Brandon Allen, things looked bright. Then the Hogs played Toledo.
You may have repressed this game. Content warning:
It was bad. As Adam observed, “Arkansas outgained Toledo 515-318 but a combination of penalties, losing the turnover battle, a missed field goal, and critical drive-finishing issues sealed the deal in that loss.”
It’s eerily similar. The 2015 team finished 8-5, and gave us some incredibly memorable moments, but the Toledo game was the start of a three game losing streak, that also saw losses to Texas Tech (led by alien superstar Patrick Mahomes who was 26/30 passing in that game) and Texas A&M.
Arkansas opens this season’s round of SEC play in even more difficult fashion, traveling to LSU today, then to Dallas to play A&M, then to Oxford to play Ole Miss, and finally to Tuscaloosa to play Alabama. Make no mistake, the opportunity to begin the year on a high was last week. This could get ugly.
BUT, it might not, and after discussing the game with some LSU beat writers, I think there are matchups that Arkansas can exploit.
So, let’s take a moment on this Saturday morning to gaslight ourselves into an Arkansas win. Is it likely? No. But it’s more fun than writing off a game before it’s played.
How Arkansas Beats LSU
1. Exploit a vulnerable passing defense
Arkansas has struggled mightily to establish a consistent running game, but some bright spots have revealed themselves in the passing game. Isaac TeSlaa seems capable of catching anything, and I’m really excited by the rapport developing between KJ Jefferson and Andrew Armstrong.
On the other side of the field, LSU’s secondary has struggled. Despite a decent performance against an anemic Mississippi State offense, the Tigers have given up a concerning number of big plays, surrendering 9 pass plays of 15 or more yards to Florida State in Week 1, and 9 in the first half against Grambling State in Week 2.
Why? I think it has a lot to do with playing Harold Perkins out of position. After his dominant performance last year in Fayetteville, I wanted to check out Harold Perkins in Week 1. However, instead of being utilized primarily as an on-the-ball edge rusher, Perkins has been used off-ball, like a SAM linebacker of old. This is likely due to the embarrassment of riches LSU has at pass rusher, but playing Perkins off-ball changes the LSU defense.
LSU is forced to align in base defense more often, leaving Perkins in coverage. Perkins is an incredible athlete, but I think he’s wasted in coverage, especially when matched up against shifty slot receivers, running backs out of the backfield, or tight ends. If LSU chooses to keep dropping Perkins back in coverage, look for this matchup to be exploited.
2. Let LSU’s offense beat themselves
It’s hard to say this when LSU has a 72-10 scoreline on the books, but there have been signs that this offense can be stopped. LSU’s offense is built on efficiency, nickeling and diming down the field with quick passes and short game. Last year they struggled to connect deeper down the field, but this year, Daniels has shown development and ability to hit those throws.
How does the offense beat itself? Last year, Arkansas’ plan to take away short passes led to struggles for the LSU offense. Arkansas forced two turnovers, and limited Daniels to just 86 passing yards. The game plan worked.
With Daniels’ growth though, it’s not that simple. When defenses press up on receivers this year, LSU is countering with slot fades and stutter-and-go’s, and Malik Nabors is very good. So how do you disrupt Jaden Daniels?
Pressure! If Jaden Daniels can be contained and reliably pressured (a big if, he’s stellar on the run), those deep throws go away. Then it’s about removing those underneath routes. New defensive coordinator Travis Williams could make his name in this game.
3. Stop the stupid stuff… please?
It should be obvious, but limiting stupid stuff is going to be crucial in a night game in Baton Rouge. Arkansas had 14 penalties accepted for 125 yards against BYU, and also turned the ball over twice. Throw in a couple of bad punts, no desire to put KJ under center on 4th and inches, and 2 successful third down conversions out of 13 attempts, and yeah— you’re gonna lose.
I have to think that Pittman and the staff can clean that stuff up. Penalties and turnovers don’t feel characteristic of the Pittman era, and I highly doubt he wants that to be his M.O. It will be telling to see how many procedural penalties occur in Death Valley.
Those are only three points, and quite frankly, all three might have to come to fruition to win this game, but I believe the game will be closer than the rankings suggest.
If Arkansas can hang close, limit explosive plays, avoid stupid mistakes, and take advantage of a vulnerable defense, they can absolutely win the game. I think I’m still calling it a close loss, but I don’t think a loss is as foregone of a conclusion as it would initially seem.
This game is always a little weird, and we always seem a little more fired up for it than they are. I believe in this team’s ability to bounce back. Seasons aren’t won in September, but they can certainly be saved.
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Go hogs!