How Arkansas Beats Missouri
I've talked a lot about the history of the game, so what will happen when we play it?
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With that said, we’ve examined the history of Arkansas-Missouri both before the Battle Line Trophy and after, but we’ve yet to discuss this year’s edition of the worst rivalry in the SEC. So let’s examine the keys to the game that could make or break Arkansas as they seek to snap a four game skid to Mizzou. Let’s talk some Hogs!
This year’s edition of the Battle Line Rivalry presented by Shelter Insurance® will be played in Columbia, Missouri, as Sam Pittman’s 3-5 (4-4) Hogs take on Eliah Drinkwitz’ 4-3 Tigers. A lot has been made of both coaches, as the game could very well decide who is named the SEC Coach of the Year (despite the fact that the trophy was rightfully won by Pittman after the victory over Mississippi State). We’ve discussed all there is to discuss, so let’s take a look at what it will take for Arkansas to finish the season strong with a win in Columbia (we can just pretend that the Bama game doesn’t exist).
Any game of football can be broken down into three phases: offense, defense, and special teams. I’m going to examine each phase and see if there’s a blueprint to beating Missouri.
Offense
The offense is actually the side of the ball I’m most interested in ahead of the game. They put up a miserable display against a bad LSU defense, and I’ve gone on record saying I blame that on offensive coordinator Kendal Briles’ playcalling. Instead of taking advantage of a leaky LSU secondary that had surrendered 10 yards per pass on the year, Briles chose to slam runningback Trelon Smith into the rears of his offensive linemen over and over and over and over again. Smith would finish with 11 rushes for 28 yards. Quarterback Feleipe Franks was actually the leading rusher on the team with 14 carries for 43 yards, and way too many designed quarterback runs.
Remember when I said that LSU defense was leaky against the pass? On throws of 20 yards or more, Feleipe Franks went 5 for 5 with 245 yards and a touchdown to Treylon Burks. On other throws he was 12-21 for 94 yards, no touchdowns, and a pick (that pick was on a longer pass, but it was less than 20 yards). That isn’t to say that Franks isn’t a great short yardage quarterback— he’s been rock solid all year. It’s an indictment of playcalling, as Briles decided to ignore what was working, resulting in Arkansas going an unacceptable 0-10 on third down.
Why do I bring this up? I think this Missouri defense can be eaten up by passes. When we had Rock M Nation’s Nate Edwards on Hoggin’ the Mic for our podcast preview this week, he mentioned that the team is incredibly young and inexperienced at cornerback. He considers Missouri’s safeties to be good, the linebackers to be great (notably, Nick Bolton, who will play on Sundays), and the defensive line to be solid if not a little short on healthy bodies. There will be big yardage available in this game. Mike Woods has been uncoverable of late, and Treylon Burks would be hard to cover if you had a secondary of NFL talent. The issue will be whether or not Kendal Briles can get out of his own way, avoid the gimmicky play calling that’s gotten him in trouble this year and let Feleipe Franks cook.
I speak for the majority of Razorback fans when I say Feleipe Franks has been excellent this year. To take the ball out of his hands would be a terrible mistake, so be on the lookout for Kendal Briles getting too cute. If he doesn’t do that, I have a hard time imagining a scenario where Arkansas can’t move the ball.
Defense
Aside from the obvious intrigue that comes with Barry Odom coaching our defense, defense will be the side of the ball to watch, in my opinion. Odom’s unit has been the star of the season, surpassing all of our expectations, and put up a stellar showing against the Tigers, despite being depleted by COVID. With that said, improvement from one of the worst defenses in history to a level of basic competence still leaves room for improvement overall. The defense has suffered some punches this year, and while the Florida game may be written off as an outlier, there have been some shaky moments.
On the season, we’re only 84th in the country against the run, and 68th against the pass— a marked improvement from a historically bad defense last year, but not enough to be “elite” yet. Where we’ve made the most improvement though is in the turnover battle. Arkansas’ defensive unit relies on generating and capitalizing on turnovers. It works great when the other team turns it over, but not so much when they have good ball security. Arkansas is undefeated this season when winning the turnover battle, and it is winless when it’s an evenly matched turnover battle, or god forbid, a loss in the turnover battle. The Hogs must generate turnovers here, as leaving a threadbare defense on the field all game will be catastrophic. Missouri does not throw interceptions, with only two on the year, but the Tigers love to fumble, fumbling 13 times and losing 7.
Safety Jalen Catalon will be out for the first half of the game following a stupid and wrongful suspension for targeting, so someone will need to step up in his absence. Given Missouri’s proclivity for running the ball, I’m looking for Grant Morgan and Bumper Pool to control the game. If Arkansas can force Mizzou into uncomfortable third downs, where passing is necessary, pressure will have to be generated somehow, because Mizzou QB Connor Bazelak probably isn’t throwing an interception. If he can be rushed into bad decisions though, the Hogs may get a break. This was the story against LSU. Arkansas was able to force LSU into 3rd and long several times, but allowed LSU to convert until the Arkansas defense went from “bend but don’t break” to broken.
Special Teams
Unfortunately, special teams have been the talk of an otherwise great season. Arkansas has had a dreadful season on special teams. The offense seems to always be starting inside their own five every drive because (for reasons beyond me) the team does not field punts. In a game shaping up to be as close as this one, field position will matter. I don’t know what it will take to generate some kind of return on punts, but good field position will be an absolute must in the game. Kicking and blocking for kicks have been a struggle on the year too, as a blocked kick saw the Hogs fall to LSU. Special teams coach Scott Fountain is the first designated special teams coach at Arkansas since John L. Smith under Bobby Petrino, but you wouldn’t know it from watching the team play this year. Hopefully he can conjure up some of the magic he did when he coached Auburn during “The Kick Six” game.
My Prediction
This one is going to be a dog fight. The teams are projected to combine for 52 points as of this writing, but that feels high to me. I expect a close game— possibly only decided by a field goal. If offense executes on third down, hits some big plays deep, and plays to win, and if defense can stop the run and force turnovers, I can see Arkansas winning this game. I’m not a gambling man, but I think the 3 point spread is correct. I’m going to take Arkansas though, as Barry Odom will stay undefeated as a coach in the Battle Line Rivalry. Hog will win it 28-24, and I’ll lose all of my hair by the fourth quarter.
Thanks so much for reading this edition of Pig Tales! As I said, it’s been a joy to write you five times this week. What’s your score prediction? Am I wrong? Leave a comment and let me know. As always, please share this with your friends, enemies, and anyone else who you think might be interested.
Stay healthy, stay safe, and go Hogs!