Same Place, New KJ
How does KJ Jefferson compare in 2021 to his last start in Death Valley in 2019?
Hello all! Before the piece begins, I’ve got some shameless plugs. I did an interview with LSU’s SB Nation site And the Valley Shook, and discussed the very subject of the following email! Feel free to check that out for more on the Arkansas-LSU game. Otherwise, for more Arkansas-posting you can follow me on Twitter so you never miss a piece. You can also follow Pig Tales on Facebook and Instagram.
I would also briefly ask you to consider subscribing if you like these pieces! That lets me know to keep going!
Now, let’s get into it!
It’s easy to forget because many of us have repressed both 2018 and 2019, but Arkansas’ date with LSU in Death Valley will not be quarterback KJ Jefferson’s first. He did in fact start as a true freshman under interim head coach Barry Lunney Jr. It was a trial by fire, as the Hogs entered the game as 43.5 point underdogs to a team many (myself included) consider to be the best team to ever play college football. It was… not a great game! The Hogs ended up showing some fight, keeping it a close 7-3 at the end of the first quarter. KJ was efficient given the circumstances, finishing 7-14 for 105 yards and no turnovers before exiting in the third quarter after a brutal hit. LSU would win 56-20, giving up two garbage time scores, and then rolling to a national championship. Welcome to the SEC.
Now a redshirt sophomore, well into his first year as the starter, KJ Jefferson has more than lived up to the potential he showed in that lone 2019 start. Along with the rest of the team, KJ has developed tremendously under Sam Pittman. After sitting a year behind veteran transfer Feleipe Franks, KJ took the reins to start this season and has been Arkansas’ most valuable player by far in my opinion.
Against lowly Rice, he missed some throws that left some fans concerned about accuracy, but as the year has progressed, KJ has been crucial to what has been an incredible season by the 2021 team. Having already clinched bowl eligibility, the team heads into Baton Rouge on a high after beating Mississippi State in a shoot out, with Jefferson heroicly leading a last minute scoring drive to take the lead with 21 seconds to spare. It was his best game of the season in my opinion, as he made all the throws he needed to, despite struggling on the ground. Completing a blistering 83% of his throws, KJ finished 19/23 for 191 yards and one touchdown.
In modern football, it feels like a quarterback who doesn’t pull off 300 passing yards in a game is considered uneffective as a passer. This could not be further from the truth. The truth is that Arkansas has the 4th best rushing attack in the country, and KJ doesn’t have to throw for 300 yards a game to be the driving force of the offense. One only needs to look at the Texas A&M game to see where the team would be without KJ this year.
After colliding with some equipment on the sideline, KJ exited the A&M game with Arkansas leading 17-10. The results of the drives in which he was out speak for themselves: punt, punt, field goal (on a drive that began in Texas A&M territory). KJ re-entered the game, led a banged up punt drive, and then led the drive that sealed Arkansas’ victory with a clutch 10 yard run for a first down that bled the clock out of A&M’s reach.
This is not to disparage Malik Hornsby at all, who is plenty talented and plenty fast. Rather, it speaks to the difference experience makes in the SEC, and how much this team relies on KJ Jefferson to function. We knew about his legs going into the season, and while they have kept drives alive, I’ve been most impressed by his development as a passer.
I got this graph from College Football Graphs. It displays the EPA (Expected Points Added) of every quarterback this year in the FBS. What does EPA mean though? Fear not, I am not a stat head either. Essentially EPA is a metric that puts plays in context throughout a football game. Three yards on first and 10 is not good. Three yards on third and 2 is good. Context matters. In the words of CFB Graphs, EPA measures “how often you provide positive value, and on average, how much positive value did you add?” In this case, KJ is 25th in the country with a 44.76 EPA. On plays where he is involved this year, we’ve added essentially 45 points on the year. Take him out, and those 45 points are gone. That’s enough of a difference to change the outcome of a 3 point win against Mississippi State, a 10 point win over A&M, AND a 19 point win over Texas.
Maybe we still win those games with a different quarterback, but you’d be hard pressed to find someone adding more value than KJ right now. Quite literally only 24 more valuable passers exist, and context within their own teams means not all of the guys above him would have equal success at Arkansas.
When KJ went to Death Valley in 2019, I was horrified for him. It was a brutal away game against the best team ever under an interim coach in the middle of a lost year. In 2021, I have complete faith in KJ delivering, and am confident that even if we’re unable to pull out a win, it won’t be KJ’s fault that we lose.
From 43.5 point underdogs to 3 point favorites, it’s amazing what changes in a couple of years. Quite frankly, the fact that Pittman has so quickly made us forget the dark times should automatically win him at least SEC Coach of the Year. With KJ at the helm, Arkansas is in elite hands.
If you liked this piece, consider subscribing and sharing, as that’s what keeps this thing going.
Thanks for reading! Go Hogs!