Where Does Arkansas Men's Basketball Go From Here?
After a really bad loss, can the Muss Bus get rolling again?
Welcome back to Pig Tales! I apologize for the hiatus, but a hectic holiday schedule and some other circumstances kept me from updating. For what it’s worth, I’m really glad you’re here! If you haven’t done so, please subscribe so you never miss and update!
Obviously I’m going to delay the roll out of paid subscriptions until further notice, simply because I can’t devote as much time to this as I had hoped, but that’s neither here nor there. What is here is SEC basketball, and there’s plenty to discuss. Let’s talk Hogs!
After a high flying 8-0 start, the Arkansas Men’s Basketball team has come back down to Earth a bit, going 2-3 to start conference play. That streak was punctuated with a terrible 92-76 loss to an LSU team that many, myself included, believed was inferior. It’s no secret that the Hogs’ conference schedule was very front loaded with talented teams, so perhaps we shouldn’t be shocked by the recent skid, but I doubt anyone expected to be blown out by LSU. What’s going on?
Well, a lot.
It’s not a hot take to say that Justin Smith’s untimely injury hurt us a lot. Smith was touted before the season, but the former Hoosier really established himself as a key player before a nasty fall against Auburn. Smith was arguably the best rebounder on the team, posting 10 rebounds in his last fully healthy game. He was also a dependable scorer. Losing that kind of production early in the conference schedule is obviously a major detriment to the team, but it isn’t the kind of absence that would cause the absolute demolition that occurred in Baton Rouge.
Unfortunately, the early conference stretch has been marred by some atrocious shooting performances— the kind that costs you games against inferior opponents. In the 81-68 loss to #12 Mizzou, the Hogs missed 22 (!) layups, and finished with a shooting percentage of 27%, in perhaps the ugliest game I’ve seen in the Musselman era. The Tigers’ plan to force Arkansas inside worked, but the homer in me was frustrated with the Tigers physicality and the seeming lack of whistles. It’s the frustrating reality of the Cuonzo Martin school of basketball. Refs can’t call every foul if you’re playing so physically from tip off, so some calls get missed in the interest of keeping the game going. That kind of grit and grind approach has more or less been phased out of the NBA, but Martin hates aesthetically pleasing basketball, so we have to face it every year.
The shooting woes were temporarily stopped against #9 Tennessee, who benefited tremendously from some good, old fashioned SEC officiating. This isn’t to once again blame a loss on referees, but this case was much more unforgivable. The game featured an incredibly lopsided amount of free throws awarded to Tennessee over Arkansas, with the Vols taking 26 and Arkansas only getting 10 attempts. Arkansas definitely doesn’t play with that kind of physicality, but all things considered, a close loss to #9 is bearable.
The Hogs followed up that performance with a statement win against a very good Georgia team, as the lid remained off the basket. The 99-69 blowout was a nice return to form, and saw some positive momentum start to build.
That momentum was halted though last night, as the shooting issues returned. Arkansas struggled, shooting 34% from the field and only 26% from three point land. I couldn’t really believe what I was seeing. Sure, LSU has some of the best recruits money can buy, but their youth was certainly a disadvantage. The team looked utterly unprepared, as 5 Tigers finished in double digits. Call it tough travel, poor game planning, or bad luck, but I’ve never seen the team look as selfish as it did, with many of the players electing to chuck up shots that had no chance of being made. They were also sloppy, turning the ball over 15 times. It was such a poor performance that the bench ended up outscoring the starters. You can’t blame refs for this one.
The road doesn’t get easier, with the team traveling to Tuscaloosa to take on a red-hot Crimson Tide, but that’s the situation the Hogs are facing. So, is it panic time? Not quite.
As I said before, the schedule was very front loaded with good teams, and many winnable games remain. With that said, there are some areas that need definite improvement if this team is to be the NCAA Tournament team that many of us expected at the beginning of the season.
1. Get back to passing up good shots for great ones
Musselman has emphasized many times in his tenure that bad shooting performances are the result of bad shot selection. I tend to agree. Obviously there are going to be weird games like the Mizzou game where even layups don’t fall, but overall they’re the kinds of shots you want to be taken. The LSU game saw the team pressing, forcing bad shots to try and overcome the deficit on one offensive possession. Rather than continue down that path, the team needs to get back to basics, passing up good shots for great shots. This means sacrifice, but it also means shots that are more of a sure thing. The San Antonio Spurs won the 2014 NBA Championship with this exact method, and it has worked for Arkansas this year. In all of the big wins this year, the team averaged around 25 assists. Against LSU, they had 8. The ball movement has to be more calculated than it was in Baton Rouge. Obviously some of those wins were against far inferior opponents, but I’ll once again point to the fact that Georgia is good, and the team had 24 assists in that game.
2. Put each game in a vacuum
There seemed to be some hangover from the big Georgia win in the loss to LSU. I don’t ever want to question a college athlete’s fight, but when Musselman is saying in his post-game presser that he’s “maybe one other time in six years… ever had a team not play with great intensity,” there’s something wrong with focus. The effort wasn’t there against LSU, and it showed in the box score.
3. Don’t overthink the roster
Eric Musselman isn’t exempt from criticism in this poor run. He made the decision to match 7’3 Connor Vanover against the 6’6 athletic wing Mwani Wilkinson, essentially daring him to shoot from deep. Wilkinson responded with a perfect shooting performance, hitting his only 3. That’s not to disparage Vanover by any stretch of the imagination. Rather, I think it put him in a bad position that left him stranded. We have a deep enough bench to match up young wing talent on young wing talent, and I think in this case, Muss just out-thought himself. It happens, and even the best coaches do it. I’m not one of the crazy people calling for his job (yes, there are actually people who think we should fire Muss). I just think that in this case, there was too much mad science and not enough fundamental basketball. Muss has forgotten more about basketball than I’ll ever know, but I think in this case, he was doing a little too much.
I trust this team to bounce back, if not against Bama, which would be a tall task and an impressive win, then in the next couple of games against Auburn at home, Vandy on the road, and Ole Miss at home. Despite missing the fans, Bud Walton is still a tough place to play. I know the players will fight hard for the home crowd, and I know Muss will have them ready.
The sky isn’t falling, but it’s also not peachy at the moment. Even the best NBA teams have head-scratching losses, so maybe it’s just an aberration. I still think this is a Tournament quality team, and that there are plenty of winnable games left. It’s a long season.
Keep calm and carry on, Hog fans. There’s plenty of good basketball to come.
Thanks so much for reading this edition of Pig Tales. Am I right or wrong? Leave a comment and let me know what you think about this bout of games. If you liked this, please consider sharing it with any friends, enemies, lovers, or haters you have. I’m excited to be back on this project.
Stay healthy, stay safe, and go Hogs!